多位美联储高官呼吁谨慎降息，担心关税引发长期通胀

Core Viewpoint - Recent calls from multiple Federal Reserve officials for cautious interest rate cuts due to concerns that President Trump's tariff policies may lead to long-term inflation, particularly affecting public inflation expectations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% during the upcoming policy meeting [1] - Some economists and Fed officials believe that Trump's tariff policies will lead to rising inflation and unemployment, as well as slower economic growth [1] - Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed that the inflation caused by tariffs might be a one-time shock, suggesting potential rate cuts by the end of the year [1][3] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that it is too early to determine if the inflation impact from tariffs is temporary, complicating the Fed's assessment of future inflation trends [1][3] Group 2: Inflation Data and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.2% in April, a slowdown from 0.7% in March [3] - The core PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased by 2.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since April 2021 [3] - Some analysts believe that the better-than-expected inflation data may be interpreted by the Fed as a calm before a storm, leading to a wait-and-see approach [3] Group 3: Tariff Policy Implications - Trump's tariff policies have seen significant increases, with an average tariff rate on China reaching as high as 165% before being reduced to around 50% following a phase trade agreement [5] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff implementation has raised concerns about its long-term impact on inflation, as gradual policy changes may affect consumer and business behavior [4][5] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook emphasized the need for potential interest rate hikes to prevent rising inflation expectations, noting that trade policies are beginning to impact the economy [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The sustainability of tariff-induced inflation is contingent on the evolution of trade policies and their economic impact, with short-term effects already visible [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's policy adjustments will be cautious, closely monitoring economic data and the effects of tariff policies [7] - In the long run, as the economic impact of tariffs becomes more pronounced, the necessity for Fed rate cuts may increase, leading to a more dovish policy stance [7]