30年国债ETF博时(511130)冲击4连涨，成交额超7亿元，机构：长债市场仍然存在较强支撑

Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market is experiencing an upward trend, with significant increases in various contract maturities, indicating a positive sentiment towards long-term bonds [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 5, 2025, all bond futures are up, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.08% to 119.600 yuan, the 10-year contract up by 0.06% to 108.800 yuan, the 5-year contract up by 0.09% to 106.110 yuan, and the 2-year contract up by 0.06% to 102.452 yuan [1] - The 30-year bond ETF from Bosera (511130) has seen a 0.04% increase, marking its fourth consecutive rise, with a trading volume of 7.51 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 9.83% [1] - Over the past month, the average daily trading volume of the 30-year bond ETF has been 22.54 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Current market conditions are characterized as a policy vacuum, with limited expectations for short-term interest rate cuts, as indicated by the relatively low implied rate cut expectations in the current bond yields [2] - The trade outlook remains uncertain, impacting market sentiment towards the bond market, while the Fed's officials suggest that interest rate cuts may not be straightforward, leading to a prolonged period of high rates [2] - The 30-year bond ETF has a current scale of 76.49 billion yuan, with recent inflows and outflows balancing out [2] Group 3: Fund Performance Metrics - The 30-year bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 14.50% over the past year, ranking 3rd out of 388 index bond funds, placing it in the top 0.77% [3] - The fund's maximum monthly return since inception was 5.35%, with the longest consecutive monthly gain being 4 months and a total gain of 10.58% [3] - The fund has a historical one-year profit probability of 100% and an average monthly profit rate of 2.20% [3] Group 4: Risk and Fees - The maximum drawdown for the 30-year bond ETF since inception is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4] - The management fee for the 30-year bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [5] Group 5: Tracking Accuracy - The one-year tracking error for the 30-year bond ETF is 0.071%, indicating a close alignment with the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 30-year government bond index [6]