特朗普敛财新招：美国准备对美债投资者下手，最高收50%利息税

Core Viewpoint - The tax reform proposal pushed by the Trump administration, referred to as the "beautiful bill," is facing intense debate in Congress and is seen as a significant shift in the U.S. tax system, with potential global investment implications [1][4]. Group 1: Tax Reform Proposal - The proposal includes a controversial provision, Section 899, which grants the U.S. government unprecedented taxing authority over investments from countries deemed to have "unfair tax practices" [3][4]. - This provision could lead to punitive tax increases on any investment returns from foreign investors, including institutional and individual investors, as well as central banks [3][4]. Group 2: Impact on International Investors - The "long-arm jurisdiction" of the proposed tax regime could significantly affect international financial markets, as it targets investment returns from countries with specific tax classifications [4][10]. - For instance, if Japan holds $1.13 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds with an average interest rate of 3%, the implementation of Section 899 could result in a tax liability of $151.5 million, effectively halving the returns on these investments [6][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Context - The U.S. government is facing a record fiscal deficit of $1.83 trillion for the 2024 fiscal year, prompting the need for increased revenue through measures like tariffs and the proposed tax reform [8][10]. - The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that Section 899 could generate $116 billion in tax revenue over the next decade, highlighting the financial motivations behind the proposal [8][10]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The proposed tax changes reflect deeper fiscal anxieties within the U.S., as foreign investors are perceived to benefit from the dollar's dominance without contributing proportionately to U.S. fiscal responsibilities [10][12]. - The potential for a significant restructuring of the international financial system is evident, as investors globally will need to reassess the risk premiums associated with U.S. investments due to the uncertainty surrounding tax liabilities [12].