【央行圆桌汇】关于降不降息 美联储内部出现两大阵营（2025年6月3日）

Global Central Bank Dynamics - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell met with President Trump to discuss economic development issues, including growth, employment, and inflation, without addressing monetary policy expectations [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicate that officials recognize the challenging trade-offs ahead due to rising inflation and increasing unemployment, with heightened risks of an economic recession in the coming months [1] - New Zealand's central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the lowest since September 2022, indicating room for further rate cuts [4] - The Bank of Korea also reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, revising its growth forecast for South Korea down from 1.5% to 0.8% due to economic downturn risks [4] Central Bank Officials' Perspectives - New York Fed President Williams emphasized the importance of maintaining stable inflation expectations and the need for strong measures if inflation deviates from targets [2] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted an internal debate on whether to view tariff impacts as temporary or long-term, affecting the approach to monetary policy [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee suggested that resolving trade policy issues could allow the economy to return to pre-tariff conditions, enabling potential rate cuts [2] - San Francisco Fed President Daly anticipates two rate cuts by the end of the year, aiming to maintain a moderately restrictive policy until inflation reaches targets [2] Market Observations - Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ predict that the Federal Reserve may need to implement rate cuts later this year to support the economy, which could weaken the dollar [5] - Goldman Sachs believes tariffs will only cause temporary inflation fluctuations in the U.S., forecasting core PCE inflation to rise to 3.6% by the end of 2025 [5] - The Australian Federal Bank expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to cautiously lower rates further, with a 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [5]