Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates that the mainland real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization after a decline, with new residential property sales expected to reach between 8 trillion to 8.5 trillion yuan in 2025 [1] Group 1: Mainland Real Estate Market - In the first four months of 2025, the national new residential property sales reached 27,035 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 3.2% [1] - Despite localized supply-demand imbalances, the residential market is anticipated to stabilize in 2025 [1] - Policy measures may include continued stockpiling, revitalizing existing land, supporting current housing sales, adjusting housing finance policies, and promoting the rental market [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report prioritizes investment in state-owned developers with low valuations, followed by private sector leaders with land reserves in first and second-tier cities, while other private developers are ranked last [1] Group 3: Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The Hong Kong real estate market faces macroeconomic uncertainties, but key positive factors are emerging, such as population recovery and a significant drop in HIBOR, which are expected to stabilize the residential market [1] - Residential prices in Hong Kong are projected to grow by 3%, 5%, and 5% in the second half of 2025 and through 2027 [1] - The retail sector is under pressure due to changes in local and tourist consumption habits, but the trend of consumption from mainland China is alleviating rental pressures, leading to a moderate overall adjustment [1] Group 4: Office Market Outlook - The office market in Hong Kong is facing limited rebound potential due to high vacancy rates and the completion of new projects, necessitating a cautious outlook [1] Group 5: Preference Ranking in Hong Kong Real Estate - The preferred ranking for the Hong Kong real estate sector is: retail REITs > low-debt residential developers > retail property holders > REITs/developers with high office business exposure, with Link REIT being the top choice [1]
交银国际：内地房地产现“止跌回稳”迹象，预计全年新房销售额在8万亿至8.5万亿元