安联投资：多因素支持亚洲信贷延续去年的强劲表现

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Global Investors indicates that several factors support the continuation of strong performance in Asian credit for the remainder of the year, driven by structural advantages and resilient economic growth in the region [1][4]. Group 1: Performance of Asian Credit - Asian fixed income markets have shown resilience amid increased market volatility due to U.S. tariff policies, with spreads outperforming similar bonds in the U.S. and emerging markets [4]. - Chinese dollar-denominated high-yield bonds have consistently been the best-performing high-yield bond market compared to other regions [1][4]. - Factors supporting strong performance include robust export performance from China and surging tech and semiconductor exports from South Korea, Taiwan, and Malaysia [1]. Group 2: Economic Environment - The economic growth in Asia is supported by strong domestic demand in Southeast Asia and successful elections in India, contributing to a positive macroeconomic environment [1]. - Even frontier markets like Mongolia have achieved strong growth, while countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka have made significant progress in debt restructuring [1]. - The overall corporate earnings in Asia remain stable, and increased policy support from China has significantly reduced systemic tail risks [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Asian Credit - Allianz believes that three key factors will drive Asian fixed income performance in 2025: advantages under potential U.S. trade policies, continued outperformance of Asian high-yield bonds, and the diversification benefits Asia offers in a fragmented global landscape [8][12]. - The Asian credit cycle remains in a favorable phase, with stable corporate earnings supporting lower debt levels across most industries [14]. - The high-yield credit sector is expected to rebound strongly in 2025, as default rates have been declining after a recent spike [15]. Group 4: Structural Advantages - The shift towards a more diversified global power structure since 2016 has positioned Asia to benefit from regional trade deepening and economic integration [19]. - Structural advantages such as favorable demographics, resilient economic fundamentals, and stable leadership are expected to support sustained growth in Asia [19]. - The past decade has seen Asian fixed income assets outperform similar assets in other regions, indicating a trend that may continue [20].