美智库：美国实力在下降？中美博弈的5大战场，中国将如何获胜？

Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The core battlefield of the US-China rivalry is in the technology sector, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and 5G [2] - Despite US sanctions, China has made significant strides in technology self-sufficiency, exemplified by Huawei's development of the Kirin 9000s chip and the launch of the DeepSeek R1 AI model, which outperformed some US models [4][5] - China's commitment to increasing R&D investment in core technologies like semiconductors and AI is expected to enhance its competitiveness [5] Group 2: Trade Relations - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration in 2018 has not subsided, with tariffs imposed on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods [7] - China has responded to US tariffs by imposing its own tariffs on US agricultural and industrial products, showcasing its economic resilience [9] - The potential for negotiation and compromise remains, as evidenced by the temporary suspension of certain tariffs during Geneva talks [9] Group 3: Global Supply Chain and Manufacturing - The US has attempted to exclude China from global supply chains, but China's position as the "world's factory" remains strong due to its superior infrastructure and production efficiency [11][12] - In the electric vehicle sector, BYD is projected to surpass Tesla as the largest EV manufacturer by 2024, indicating China's growing influence in this market [13] Group 4: Military Dynamics - China's military modernization, including advancements in missile technology and aircraft, demonstrates its growing military capabilities [15] - The US continues to conduct military operations in the South China Sea, but both nations have shown restraint in escalating military tensions [17] Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - The US faces challenges such as manufacturing hollowing out and rising social tensions, while China is steadily advancing its economic reforms and expanding its international relationships [19] - The strategic patience and resilience of China may lead to a potential shift in the balance of power, allowing it to break the US's dominant position in the future [19]