近期汽柴油市场触底反弹 但逢高谨慎追多

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gasoline and diesel market in China is experiencing a rebound after three months of decline, driven by increased buying at low prices and low inventory levels, alongside a stable international crude oil market [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gasoline prices have been rising since May 20, with the average wholesale price reaching 7714 yuan/ton as of June 3, marking a near one-month high but still within the year's low price range [2]. - Diesel prices have also shown an upward trend, with the average wholesale price at 6802 yuan/ton, approaching previous highs, although there are risks of a pullback at elevated levels [2][4]. - The overall market sentiment is positive, with many sales units actively pushing prices higher, although purchasing activity from downstream sectors may be limited at high price levels [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of diesel is tight in some regions, supported by low inventory levels, while gasoline demand has not seen substantial improvement despite some marginal recovery [4][6]. - The first batch of collective procurement prices for gasoline and diesel from Sinopec in Northeast China has increased, with gasoline prices rising by 50 yuan/ton and diesel by 80 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [5]. - The gasoline and diesel crack spreads have shown divergent trends, with gasoline experiencing a decline in consumption and a drop in crack spread, while diesel remains supported by low inventory levels [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The international crude oil market is expected to remain stable, but the upward momentum for gasoline and diesel prices may be limited due to weak demand and potential easing of tight supply conditions [8]. - Gasoline demand is anticipated to remain weak in June, with seasonal factors and competition from alternative energy sources impacting consumption [8]. - Diesel demand is also expected to decline, particularly with the onset of the rainy season in southern China and reduced agricultural demand in northern regions [8].