老美就业数据炸雷！美联储降息倒计时开始？

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant drop in the US ADP employment data for May, which reported only 37,000 new jobs, far below the expected 110,000 and lower than the previous value of 62,000, marking the lowest level since March 2023 [2][3] - The urgency expressed by the former president for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates reflects the immense pressure on the US economy, as employment data is a critical indicator for monetary policy alongside inflation [2][3] - If the Federal Reserve initiates a rate-cutting cycle, it could potentially trigger a bull market in the A-share market, although the article questions whether investors will profit from it [2][3] Group 2 - The article highlights common pitfalls in a bull market, such as blindly following stock price increases, leading to buying at peak prices and becoming a "retail investor's scapegoat" [2][4] - Emotional instability among investors can result in premature selling of good stocks during minor fluctuations, causing them to miss out on significant gains [2][4] - Misjudging trends can lead to investing in stocks that appear to be rising but lack institutional support, resulting in a rapid decline once retail investors exit [2][4] Group 3 - The article emphasizes that many investors lose money in bull markets because they fail to understand institutional strategies [4][5] - Institutional funds are the dominant force in the market, often using tactics like creating panic through price drops to accumulate shares at lower prices [5][7] - Retail investors often panic and sell during stock price declines, while institutions may be accumulating shares, as indicated by the presence of institutional inventory data [7][9] Group 4 - To avoid being "harvested" by institutions, investors should closely monitor institutional inventory data, as a dense presence of institutional holdings indicates active accumulation [9][11] - Recognizing short-covering signals can provide insights into potential bottom-fishing opportunities by institutions [9][11] - Investors should not be swayed by market emotions; understanding the underlying funding logic is crucial for making informed decisions [9][11]