新消费涨不动了？美银下调蜜雪冰城评级至“跑输大市”，称“股价已大幅领先于基本面”

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Mixue Ice City has recently faced a reality check after a significant rise, with analysts expressing concerns over its high valuation compared to its fundamentals [2][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - On June 5, 2023, Mixue Ice City’s stock price dropped by 7.72% to HK$568, with a potential downside of approximately 18% compared to Bank of America's target price of HK$465 [2][5]. - Since its IPO, Mixue Ice City’s stock has surged by 204%, while the MSCI China Index has only increased by 1% during the same period [5]. - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 40x for 2025/26, which is significantly higher than the average of its peers in the new consumption sector [5][10]. Group 2: Key Risks Identified - Bank of America highlighted three main risks for Mixue Ice City: 1. Short-term fundamentals may not support the high valuation [2][8]. 2. Challenges in overseas expansion and coffee business could limit long-term growth [2][8]. 3. Potential valuation corrections driven by liquidity factors [2][10]. Group 3: Financial Estimates and Projections - The adjusted net income estimates for Mixue Ice City are projected to grow from CNY 3,137 million in 2023 to CNY 7,862 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 19% [6][11]. - The expected EPS for 2025 is CNY 14.16, increasing to CNY 20.71 by 2027 [7][11]. - The company anticipates a decline in gross margin from 32.5% in 2024 to 30.5% in 2025 due to rising costs and the transfer of supply chain efficiency benefits to franchisees [8][10]. Group 4: Market Position and Growth Challenges - Mixue Ice City is recognized as the largest and most prominent fresh tea beverage company in China, but its growth is primarily dependent on store expansion, which may face limitations due to its already large base of 46,500 stores by the end of 2024 [5][11]. - The company’s overseas business, which is expected to account for 6% of GMV in 2024, is projected to decline by approximately 30% year-on-year due to various operational challenges and increased competition [8][10].