【市场纵横】避险情绪缓和 黄金宽幅震荡

Group 1: Market Overview - In May, gold prices experienced a downward adjustment, reaching a low of $3120, ending a streak of new highs since January, influenced by easing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [2] - Oil prices fluctuated, initially rising from $55.78 to around $64, but concerns over oversupply due to OPEC+ increasing production led to a bearish outlook [4][9] - The US dollar index fluctuated, peaking at 101.95 before falling to 99.41, with a significant decline of over 9% since January, raising concerns about the dollar's strength amid trade tensions and potential government shutdowns [6] Group 2: Commodity Performance - Gold remains in a long-term bull market, with expectations of further increases due to potential Fed rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, despite recent price adjustments [8][19] - Oil supply concerns are heightened as OPEC+ announced production increases, leading to predictions of further price declines, with a potential drop below $55 [9][27] - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile due to uncertainties from trade policies and economic conditions, with a projected trading range of $4.50 to $5.30 [10][28] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US labor market showed resilience with April non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000, despite the impact of trade tensions [11][13] - Inflation indicators showed a decrease, with April CPI at 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [11][14] - Economic growth forecasts have been adjusted downward, with expectations of a 1.3% GDP growth rate for 2025, reflecting concerns over trade policies and economic stability [14][16] Group 4: Equity Market Trends - US stock markets rebounded in May, with the S&P 500 up 6.15% and the Nasdaq up 9.56%, as trade tensions eased and investor sentiment improved [29] - The Nikkei 225 index showed a recovery, reaching 38,700, supported by positive economic data and easing trade concerns [10][30] - Investor confidence in Japanese assets is rising due to the weakening of US debt and the attractiveness of Japanese financial assets amid global economic uncertainties [30][31]