什么情况？黑色系强势拉涨，焦煤期货暴涨7％后回调，机构称切勿追涨杀跌

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in coking coal and coke futures prices is primarily driven by market speculation regarding potential tax increases in Mongolia and the need for price correction after significant declines earlier this year [1][2][8]. Group 1: Price Movements - On June 4, coking coal futures rose to 772 CNY/ton, marking a 7.19% increase, while coke futures reached 1374 CNY/ton, with a 5.72% rise [1]. - On June 5, coking coal futures settled at 757 CNY/ton, reflecting a more modest increase of 1.68% [1]. - Coking coal futures have seen a cumulative decline of over 42% since the beginning of the year, dropping from around 1230 CNY/ton to 709 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply remains ample, with domestic production increasing and coal inventories rising significantly [5][6]. - From January to April 2025, China's industrial raw coal output reached 1.58 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, with Shanxi province contributing notably [5]. - The overall market is characterized by excess supply, with high coal and coke inventories and a seasonal decline in terminal demand [6][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent price increases are viewed as a reaction to market sentiment and a correction of the basis rather than a fundamental shift in supply-demand dynamics [8][9]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to cautious purchasing behavior from coking enterprises due to production losses [8]. - Future price movements are expected to be limited, with a focus on monitoring the recovery of spot prices and the cost of coking coal warehouse receipts [8][9].