取消美债上限？特朗普引爆美国金融死亡螺旋

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Trump's proposal to eliminate the debt ceiling in the U.S., suggesting it could lead to a financial crisis for U.S. debt [2][3]. Financial Situation - The U.S. government's annual revenue is $4.9 trillion, while expenditures are $6.8 trillion, resulting in a fiscal deficit of $1.8 trillion [4]. - The current national debt stands at $36 trillion, with interest payments consuming 20% of annual revenue, leading to a debt-to-revenue ratio of 123%, significantly exceeding the 60% warning threshold [4]. Debt Dynamics - The increase in U.S. debt is outpacing revenue growth, with the debt growth rate being three times that of revenue growth, indicating a deteriorating repayment capacity [4]. - Investors are increasingly selling U.S. debt, with holdings dropping from $1.3 trillion to over $700 billion, and projections suggest this could fall to $300 billion in the future [5]. Future Projections - Bridgewater's Dalio estimates that by 2035, U.S. debt could reach $50 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding 30% of total revenue, signaling a potential collapse of the current financial model [5]. - The article predicts a decade of monetary warfare, with a shift away from the U.S. dollar, as other currencies like the yuan and euro seek to capture dollar market share [6]. Political Implications - Trump's approach to fiscal policy is likened to short-term political gains at the expense of long-term financial stability, similar to local officials prioritizing immediate projects over future repayment concerns [3].