越南、印尼等国制造业持续承压，亚太股市逆势上扬丨东盟观察

Group 1 - The uncertainty of US tariff policies continues to erode external demand for several Asian countries, leading to significant pressure on their manufacturing sectors [1] - The S&P Global reported that Vietnam's manufacturing PMI fell below 50 for the second consecutive month, with new export orders contracting for the seventh month in a row [1][2] - Indonesia's new orders saw the largest decline since August 2021, while South Korea's manufacturing output experienced its most significant drop in nearly three years [1][2] Group 2 - The ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 48.7 in April to 49.2 in May 2025, but remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating a lack of optimism among manufacturers regarding new orders [2] - Countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have PMIs below 50, indicating ongoing contraction in their manufacturing activities [2][3] - The Philippines experienced nearly stagnant manufacturing growth in May, primarily due to a decrease in overseas orders and significant job losses [3] Group 3 - Thailand's manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 in April to 51.2 in May, marking its first expansion since February, with new orders increasing for the first time since December [3] - The manufacturing sectors in Japan and South Korea are also struggling, with Japan's PMI at 49.4 and South Korea's PMI remaining below the neutral level for four consecutive months [3][4] Group 4 - Some countries are heavily reliant on high export profits to the US, lacking preparedness for crises and alternative markets [4] - Input costs are rising due to high energy and raw material prices, with many companies unable to pass these costs onto consumers, squeezing profit margins [4] - The root causes of the manufacturing pressure in Asian countries extend beyond US tariff policies, including weak global demand and inflationary pressures in the US and Europe [4][5] Group 5 - Despite the manufacturing downturn, the Asia-Pacific stock markets have rebounded, with the KOSPI and Jakarta Composite Index entering technical bull markets [2][5] - From April 9 to June 5, significant gains were recorded in various indices, including a 22.6% increase in the KOSPI and a 22.7% increase in the Ho Chi Minh Index [5][6] - The strong performance of the stock markets is attributed to improved expectations for US interest rate cuts and a shift in capital allocation towards emerging markets [6]