几内亚矿端扰动结束？3000关口失守 空头再度发力！氧化铝还能追空吗？

Core Viewpoint - The alumina futures market has experienced a significant decline, with prices dropping below 3000 yuan per ton, reflecting a shift in market sentiment due to increasing inventory levels and a recovery in production capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Alumina futures fell by 2.90% to 2943 yuan per ton, reversing all gains from the previous day [1]. - National alumina inventory increased to 3.805 million tons, marking a rise of 11,000 tons from the previous week, ending a four-week decline [1]. - Port inventories surged by 41,000 tons, indicating a growing supply in the market, while demand from end-users appears to be weakening [1]. Group 2: Supply and Production - The total production capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina reached 11.082 million tons per year, with operational capacity at 8.727 million tons per year, reflecting a weekly increase in operating rates by 0.54 percentage points to 78.75% [1]. - Several alumina companies are resuming production, contributing to increased supply, alongside the steady progress of new projects [1][2]. Group 3: Cost and Import Dynamics - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum has risen to approximately 17,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 258 yuan per ton, primarily due to disturbances in the mining sector affecting alumina prices [2]. - The import window for alumina has opened, with FOB prices from Western Australia around 3275 yuan per ton, which is competitive with domestic prices [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recovery in production capacity may lead to an oversupply situation, with short-term price pressures expected to continue [2][3]. - The Guinea mining disturbances have subsided, but the overall alumina market remains in a state of excess supply, leading to a bearish outlook for futures prices [3].