Affirm Stock Moves Above 200-Day SMA: Time to Buy the Bounce?

Core Insights - Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) is experiencing stock momentum due to product innovation, an expanding customer base, and strategic initiatives in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector [1] - The stock has surpassed its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a potential uptrend, closing at $54.33, which is 34.2% below its 52-week high of $82.53, suggesting significant upside potential [1][2] Performance Overview - Over the past month, AFRM shares increased by 6.5%, slightly outperforming the S&P 500's 6.3% gain but lagging behind the industry average of 13.7% [5] - Major competitors in the BNPL space, such as PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) and Block, Inc. (XYZ), saw gains of 7% and 35%, respectively [5] Growth Drivers - A notable 94% of transactions in the fiscal third quarter were from repeat users, indicating strong brand loyalty and potential for stable revenue [9] - Affirm is expanding into everyday consumer categories, exemplified by a partnership with World Market, which aims to enhance consistent usage [9] - The company is also broadening its international presence, having entered the U.K. market and planning to expand into Western Europe through Shopify, supported by over 358,000 merchant partners [10] Valuation and Financial Projections - Affirm's forward 12-month sales multiple of 4.51X is lower than the industry average of 5.56X, indicating it is undervalued compared to peers [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 100.6% year-over-year improvement in fiscal 2025 earnings to $0.01 per share, with fiscal 2026 earnings expected to reach $0.70 [15] - Revenue projections for fiscal 2025 and 2026 are anticipated to grow by 37% and 23.7%, respectively, with fourth-quarter revenue estimates between $815-$845 million and Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) between $9.4-$9.7 billion [15] Challenges and Competitive Landscape - As of March 31, 2025, Affirm had $1.9 billion in funding debt, with a long-term debt-to-capital ratio of 71.8%, significantly higher than the industry average of 13.3% [16] - Operating expenses have been increasing, with a rise of 76.6% in fiscal 2022, 25.9% in fiscal 2023, and 5.4% in fiscal 2024, necessitating effective cost management to protect margins [17] - The BNPL market is becoming increasingly competitive, with rivals like PayPal, Klarna, and Block expanding their offerings, which may challenge Affirm's merchant retention efforts [18]