氧化铝期货夜盘反弹 分析人士：市场氛围依然偏空

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in alumina futures prices are primarily driven by changes in supply dynamics and market sentiment, particularly influenced by Guinea's mining policies and domestic production adjustments [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Alumina futures experienced a significant drop, with the main contract closing at 2,943 yuan/ton, down 2.9% [1]. - The market saw a brief recovery in the night session, closing at 2,953 yuan/ton after touching a low of 2,928 yuan/ton [1]. - The recent price movements are attributed to a decrease in trading activity and a shift back to fundamental factors affecting supply and demand [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The alumina industry faced production cuts due to losses, leading to tighter spot supply, while Guinea's policy changes initially drove prices up to around 3,300 yuan/ton [1][2]. - However, as the excitement around Guinea's mining policy waned, short positions increased, causing prices to retreat to the 2,900-3,000 yuan/ton range [1]. - Current supply conditions are sufficient to meet domestic production needs, with no significant price increases observed in ore prices [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that if Guinea's bauxite production does not further decline, the domestic supply will experience a balance between surplus and seasonal tightness later in the year [2]. - The alumina production capacity is expected to rise to approximately 92 million tons, which may lead to price stabilization around high-cost production levels [2]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with expectations of continued supply increases and macroeconomic factors influencing trading behavior [3].