外卖“百亿补贴”内卷，咖啡先受不住了

Core Viewpoint - The coffee industry is facing a significant price war driven by aggressive subsidies from delivery platforms, leading to unsustainable pricing and potential long-term damage to local coffee brands [3][6][32]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - The coffee price war has resulted in prices dropping below 6 yuan per cup, with extreme cases as low as 2 yuan, making coffee cheaper than bottled water [2][15]. - The average cost of a cup of coffee for major brands like Luckin and Kudi is approximately 10.16 yuan and 9.55 yuan respectively, indicating that current prices are well below cost [17]. - The market share of national chain coffee brands has increased from nearly 80% to over 90% from early April to late May 2025, significantly impacting local brands [19]. Group 2: Impact on Local Brands - Local coffee brands are struggling under the pressure of the price war, with many unable to sustain operations, leading to calls for an end to irrational subsidies [3][5]. - The Chongqing Coffee Association has highlighted that the ongoing price competition is harming local brands' market share and innovation capabilities, with a reported 12% decline in online transaction amounts year-on-year [3][5]. - If the current situation persists, it is expected to adversely affect the livelihoods of more industry workers and the long-term health of the coffee sector [5][6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The aggressive pricing strategies have altered consumer perceptions, with a heightened sensitivity to coffee prices, making it unlikely for consumers to support higher-priced local brands [20][28]. - The coffee market in China has seen a shift towards a more mature consumer base, with an average consumption of 300 cups per year in major cities, indicating potential for growth if pricing strategies stabilize [34]. - The focus on low prices has led to concerns about product quality and sustainability, with reports of diluted flavors and inconsistent product offerings [37][38]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current price war is viewed as a short-term strategy that may not be sustainable, as it undermines the profitability and operational viability of coffee businesses [21][23]. - There is a growing recognition that the industry must shift from price competition to quality and service differentiation to foster a healthier market environment [36][42]. - Regulatory bodies are beginning to address the issues arising from the price war, indicating a potential shift towards more sustainable competitive practices in the future [38].