美债4.5%逼停关税战，特朗普三次认怂！

Group 1 - The recent phenomenon in global financial markets shows that despite the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields repeatedly breaking the 4.5% threshold, safe-haven assets like gold have not experienced the expected decline, indicating complex market expectations regarding the dollar's credit [1] - The "dollar heart" refers to the Fed-dominated reserve market, which plays a crucial role in regulating liquidity in the banking system through open market operations. Insufficient reserves or a failing repo market can severely impact overall liquidity, akin to a heart attack in the human body [2] - The volatility in the Treasury market reflects market sentiment rather than the liquidity dynamics of the reserve market. Factors such as economic expectations, inflation levels, and international capital flows influence the supply-demand relationship in the Treasury market [3] Group 2 - The "sinkhole" phenomenon in the Treasury market is caused by high-leverage hedge funds' deleveraging operations, which can trigger liquidity crises. For instance, in April 2025, the rise in Treasury yields led to a significant reduction in the basis trade scale held by hedge funds, resulting in market paralysis [5] - The cross-market transmission effects of the "sinkhole" are significant, as evidenced by hedge funds reducing their U.S. stock holdings by $750 billion from February to April 2025, exacerbating market volatility [5] - Political decisions, such as those during the U.S.-China tariff war, illustrate the interaction between the "sinkhole" and political actions, with significant market reactions tied to Treasury yield thresholds [7][9] Group 3 - Despite rising Treasury yields, gold prices have not declined, reflecting a complex market perception of dollar credit. Central banks, particularly China, have been increasing their gold reserves as a hedge against dollar risk, making gold a key tool in the "de-dollarization" process [10] - The future stability of the dollar system will depend on the Fed's ability to balance inflation control and market liquidity, as well as the U.S. government's capacity to alleviate debt pressures through fiscal reforms [12]