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氧化铝期货夜盘反弹至2953元/吨 库存拐点到来供应压力增加
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-06-06 01:27

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum oxide futures market is experiencing volatility, with recent price fluctuations influenced by supply-demand dynamics and external factors such as Guinea's mining policies [3][4]. Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The aluminum oxide futures market has seen a notable decrease in trading activity, shifting focus back to fundamental factors. In April, widespread maintenance and production cuts due to losses led to tighter spot supply. In May, changes in Guinea's mineral resource policies contributed to a price surge, with futures prices nearing 3300 yuan/ton [3]. - As the excitement around Guinea's mining policy subsides, bearish forces have emerged, causing aluminum oxide futures prices to drop back to the 2900-3000 yuan/ton range. The Guinea government's revocation of the AXIS mining license primarily affects bauxite mining and does not significantly alleviate the oversupply crisis in the ore market [3]. Inventory and Capacity Pressure - The recent decline in aluminum oxide futures prices is primarily due to the arrival of an inventory turning point. Weekly production of aluminum oxide has increased for three consecutive weeks, and the arrival of over 30,000 tons from new Indonesian projects has shifted social inventory from depletion to accumulation [4]. - With the supply side recovering significantly in June, the pressure of overcapacity has increased. Current bauxite prices in Guinea are around 75 USD/ton, allowing domestic aluminum oxide producers to maintain high profit margins at 3300 yuan/ton. If the production cuts in Guinea do not expand further, the domestic bauxite supply is expected to balance throughout the year [4].