供需结构偏弱 甲醇续涨乏力

Group 1 - Recent domestic coal futures have experienced a sharp rebound, leading to a stabilization and increase in methanol prices, which are currently operating in the range of 2250 to 2300 yuan/ton [1] - The methanol futures contract 2509 remains in a bearish arrangement, with significant domestic supply pressure and increasing overseas imports, while downstream demand is entering a low season, resulting in accumulated social inventory [1] Group 2 - Domestic coal prices have significantly declined due to increased supply pressures, with the daily output of coking coal reaching 1.9795 million tons in May, a month-on-month increase of 11,300 tons [2] - The production profit for coal-based methanol has risen to over 20% in the northwest region of China, with profits in Shandong and Inner Mongolia increasing to the range of 15% to 20% [2] Group 3 - The reduction in maintenance of methanol production facilities has led to high production levels, with an estimated maintenance capacity of 7.51 million tons/year in May, a significant decrease of 56.59% year-on-year [3] - The average operating rate of domestic methanol plants was maintained at 82.95%, with a weekly production average of 1.9667 million tons, an increase of 27.60 thousand tons compared to the same period last year [3] Group 4 - The traditional low season for methanol consumption occurs from June to August, with June being the annual demand trough, leading to weak demand characteristics [4] - As external imports of methanol increase, the weak demand may lead to an accumulation of inventory, with port methanol inventory in East and South China rising to 394,400 tons, and inland methanol inventory reaching 355,000 tons [4]