邓正红能源软实力：贸易谈判预期升温 原油市场仍缺乏清晰可持续的交易主线

Group 1 - The market optimism regarding the outcomes of the US-China leaders' call has boosted investor expectations for economic growth and oil demand, leading to an increase in international oil prices [1] - As of the close on June 5, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery settled at $63.37 per barrel, up $0.52, a rise of 0.83%, while Brent crude for August delivery settled at $65.34 per barrel, up $0.48, a rise of 0.74% [1] - Despite expectations of increased production from OPEC potentially leading to oversupply, geopolitical events and Canadian wildfires may reduce oil output, providing support for oil prices [1] Group 2 - Current limited growth in oil supply, coupled with a gradual recovery in seasonal demand, is expected to help oil prices continue their oscillating recovery trend [2] - The easing of tariffs has positively impacted market risk appetite and economic demand expectations, although long-term risks remain unresolved [2] - The oil market is facing multiple significant variables, including geopolitical situations in Ukraine and Iran, OPEC production conditions, summer consumption performance, US tariff policies, and negotiation progress [2] Group 3 - The communication between US and China leaders has enhanced trade negotiation expectations, creating a strategic buffer through institutional dialogue mechanisms, which has effectively countered concerns over OPEC's increased production [3] - Despite high interest rates from the Federal Reserve suppressing demand and Saudi Aramco lowering crude prices for Asia, the market remains focused on the "peace premium" resulting from improved US-China relations [3] - The complexity of geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions has heightened investor sensitivity to marginal improvements, shifting capital from "conflict discounts" to "easing premiums" [3] Group 4 - The oil market is in a "tight balance" due to limited supply elasticity, with OPEC's overproduction and production increase expectations partially offset by geopolitical events and seasonal demand recovery [4] - The resilience in demand is supported by the upcoming summer consumption peak and the easing of US-China tariffs, which improves manufacturing expectations [4] - The current oil price volatility highlights the market's lack of a sustainable trading narrative, influenced by policy variables, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC's production discipline [4]