当非农撞上关税战：有人已偷偷建仓……

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs on global supply chains and highlights the adjustments made by top quantitative funds on Wall Street, particularly in gold and copper futures [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The ADP employment report showed a significant drop in job growth, with only 37,000 jobs added in May, the lowest in two years, while JOLTS job openings remained high at 7.391 million, indicating a hiring freeze rather than layoffs [3] - LME copper inventories are rapidly declining, suggesting traders are preemptively shipping to avoid risks, while U.S. copper inventories are accumulating, reaching a near five-year high [4] - CME interest rate futures indicate a 95.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with a 28.9% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [5] Group 2: Market Expectations - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release crucial employment data, with expectations of 126,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% [6] - Three potential scenarios for the employment data are outlined: - Scenario 1: Data exceeds expectations (25% probability) with job additions over 130,000 and unemployment at or below 4.2% - Scenario 2: Data meets expectations (40% probability) with job additions between 110,000 and 130,000 and unemployment at 4.2% - Scenario 3: Data is unexpectedly weak (35% probability) with job additions below 100,000 and unemployment above 4.2% [8][9] Group 3: Trading Strategies - During the data release, volatility is expected to increase, and traders should be cautious of conflicting signals from Federal Reserve officials [7] - A focus on hedging strategies involving risk assets like copper and crude oil against safe-haven assets like gold is recommended [7] - Historical patterns suggest that the market may experience significant volatility, as seen in previous non-farm payroll nights [9]