欧洲央行降息25个基点，年内八次降息后宽松货币政策周期将结束

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point cut in three key interest rates, effective June 11, marking the eighth rate cut in a year, signaling further monetary easing [1] - After the rate cut, the deposit facility rate, main refinancing rate, and marginal lending rate are set at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% respectively [1] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that the monetary policy cycle is nearing its end, and the ECB is equipped to handle upcoming uncertainties at the current interest rate levels [1] Group 2 - The ECB unexpectedly lowered its inflation forecast for the Eurozone, projecting an overall inflation rate of 2.0% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with the 2026 forecast being particularly surprising to the market [2] - The Eurozone's economic growth is showing signs of slowing, with projected GDP growth rates of 0.9% in 2025, 1.1% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027 [2] - The ECB noted that global trade policy uncertainties may continue to suppress business investment and exports in the short term, but improvements in financing conditions will enhance the Eurozone's ability to withstand external shocks [2] Group 3 - The ECB will adopt a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determine appropriate monetary policy, without committing to a specific interest rate path [3] - This approach aligns with market expectations and allows for future policy flexibility [3] Group 4 - The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Federal Reserve (Fed) may intensify, as the ECB continues its easing while the Fed has not cut rates this year, resulting in a rate gap of over 2 percentage points [4] - The Fed's Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, with tariffs and uncertainty impacting the economy broadly [4] - Fed officials view inflation as a primary risk, with many preferring to delay rate cuts due to the uncertain impact of tariffs on the economy [4] Group 5 - Fed officials express concerns about inflation risks, particularly due to the potential impact of Trump's trade policies, which may continue to push prices higher through various channels [5] - Current monetary policy is deemed effective in responding to macroeconomic changes [5] Group 6 - The impact of tariffs on U.S. economic growth and employment remains unclear, but there are concerns about their short-term effects on inflation [6] - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with the Fed's pace of rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed's monetary policy [6]