美债抛完日债抛，日债抛完欧债抛

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has signaled a potential end to its monetary easing cycle, leading to a shift in market expectations and a sell-off in European bonds [1][3]. Group 1: ECB's Policy Shift - ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the central bank is nearing the end of its monetary policy easing cycle and may raise future growth forecasts, which has prompted traders to adjust their positions [1]. - Following Lagarde's comments, the two-year government bond yields in most Eurozone countries rose by at least 5 basis points [1]. Group 2: Global Bond Market Reaction - The sell-off in the European bond market has had a contagion effect, impacting the U.S. bond market despite weak U.S. employment data that had previously supported U.S. Treasury prices [2][3]. - The U.S. two-year Treasury yield briefly fell but then rebounded, ultimately rising by over 5 basis points [3]. Group 3: Divergence in Monetary Policies - There is a significant gap in the market's expectations for interest rate cuts between the ECB and the Federal Reserve, with the market now pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in September [7]. - The ECB's expected rate cut for the end of the year has been adjusted from 30 basis points to 25 basis points following Lagarde's remarks [7]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Concerns over U.S. fiscal prospects and inflation driven by tariffs are contributing to a complex environment for bond investors, making it difficult for U.S. Treasury yields to decline significantly [7][8]. - The market is awaiting the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, with expectations of an increase of 125,000 jobs, which is lower than the previous month's figure [8].