黑色板块：宏观利好催化反弹，需求受限高度有限

Group 1 - The black sector is experiencing a price rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment, but the upside is limited by supply and demand conditions [1] - Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, with electric furnaces and some blast furnaces facing losses, leading to a decline in molten iron production [1] - The supply of iron ore is not meeting expectations, with a year-on-year decrease in cumulative shipments and a slowdown in new project ramp-ups [1] Group 2 - The coal supply remains stable, with high production levels, while the news regarding the increase in coal export tariffs from Mongolia has not been confirmed [1] - The market for alloy materials is under pressure due to increased inventory and cautious market sentiment, particularly in manganese and silicon iron [1] - The glass sector is facing declining demand in the off-season, with weak processing demand and existing supply pressures [1] Group 3 - Overall, the previous price declines have created momentum for a rebound, driven by macroeconomic factors and news related to coking coal [1] - Despite the rebound, the construction and manufacturing sectors are entering a low-demand season, limiting the potential for significant demand growth [1] - The medium-term outlook suggests a volatile market, with attention needed on future policy directions [1]