非农数据前夕黄金多空胶着 技术面破位风险暗藏杀机？

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a rebound, with prices reaching $3370.50 per ounce, driven by anticipation of the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which could significantly influence gold's recent trading pattern [1][3] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with May non-farm payrolls expected to add 130,000 jobs, a slowdown from April's 177,000 [3] - Initial jobless claims have risen for the second consecutive week, indicating potential inflationary pressures from tariff policies [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with President Trump advocating for rate cuts to address economic slowdown, while Fed Chair Powell and FOMC members maintain a "data-dependent" approach [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown signs of weakening momentum, with a recent drop below the 5-day moving average, indicating potential for further declines if the support level at $3333 per ounce is breached [3] - If non-farm data disappoints, gold may struggle to reclaim the 5-day moving average, while a positive report could push prices towards the previous high of $3400 [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment - There is a subtle change in the negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar, as gold prices have not declined despite a significant rebound in the S&P 500 index, suggesting ongoing concerns about geopolitical risks and long-term inflation [3]