今日非农夜：新增就业若跌破十万，美股牛市危了？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the upcoming non-farm payroll data release and its implications for the U.S. labor market, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth and stable unemployment rates [2][3][4] - Analysts predict that non-farm employment is expected to increase by 126,000 in May, down from 177,000 in April, which is below the three-month average of 155,000 [2] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, with wage growth expected to slightly decline year-on-year [2][4] Group 2 - Various leading indicators suggest a trend of gradually slowing employment growth, with the ADP employment report showing only 37,000 new jobs in May, significantly below the expected 110,000 [4] - Initial jobless claims rose from 216,000 to 226,000, indicating a potential increase in unemployment [4] - The ISM manufacturing employment index remains below 50 for the fourth consecutive month, indicating contraction in the sector [4] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs on employment growth is shifting from a "tailwind" to a "headwind," with expectations of weakness in trade-affected industries [7][8] - The government sector has seen job cuts, with expectations of a net increase of 10,000 government jobs, but federal job losses are expected to offset gains in state and local government employment [9] - Immigration restrictions are projected to have a delayed negative impact on employment, with current effects expected to be minimal [10] Group 4 - Market reactions to the non-farm payroll data are critical, with a threshold of 100,000 jobs being a psychological barrier that could trigger recession fears if not met [11][13] - Goldman Sachs suggests that ideal job growth for the stock market would be between 150,000 and 200,000, with lower figures potentially leading to significant market declines [11][12] - The S&P 500's performance is closely tied to the employment data, with various ranges of job growth correlating to specific expected movements in the index [12]