美国5月非农就业前瞻：就业市场会否急速降温，美联储该何去何从？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for May is expected to show a further cooling in the labor market, with predictions of new job additions dropping from 177,000 in April to around 130,000 [1][2][4] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs is becoming evident, particularly in the leisure, hospitality, trade, and transportation sectors, which are expected to see significant job declines [2][4] - The ADP employment report for May showed only a 37,000 increase in jobs, the lowest since March 2023, indicating a potential underperformance in the non-farm payroll data [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain stable at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month [1][2] - Economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with some data showing resilience in the labor market, such as a slight increase in job openings and a decrease in layoffs [3][4] - The ISM services PMI dropped to 49.9, indicating a contraction in service sector activity, which could further complicate the economic outlook and influence Federal Reserve policy [4][5] Group 3 - Market reactions to the non-farm payroll data are expected to be significant, with potential impacts on the S&P 500 index depending on the job numbers reported [7][8] - If job additions fall below 50,000, the S&P 500 could see a decline of up to 1.5%, while numbers meeting or exceeding expectations could stabilize or even boost market sentiment [8]