万泰生物颓了，九价能救？

Core Viewpoint - Wantai Biological's 9-valent HPV vaccine has been approved in China, breaking the long-standing foreign monopoly and potentially reversing the company's declining revenue and profit trend [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Wantai Biological's revenue and profit have been declining for several years, with reported revenues of 111.85 billion yuan in 2022, 55.11 billion yuan in 2023, and a projected 22.45 billion yuan in 2024. Net profits were 47.36 billion yuan, 12.48 billion yuan, and 1.06 billion yuan for the same years [4]. - In Q1 2025, the company continued to face challenges, with revenue of 4.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 46.76%, and a net loss of 0.53 billion yuan, a staggering decline of 141.98% [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The approval of the 9-valent HPV vaccine is expected to boost Wantai's performance in 2025, as it can capture market share from Merck, which currently has the only competing product [8]. - The 9-valent HPV vaccine offers broader protection compared to the 2-valent version, which may enhance its market appeal [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The domestic HPV vaccine market has become increasingly competitive, with prices for the 2-valent HPV vaccine dropping significantly from 329 yuan to 86 yuan, leading to a substantial revenue decline for Wantai's vaccine segment [6][10]. - The market is expected to see more competitors entering with their own 9-valent HPV vaccines by 2026, which could lead to further price wars and impact Wantai's ability to maintain growth [15][16]. Group 4: Future Outlook - While the approval of the 9-valent HPV vaccine is a positive development for Wantai, the long-term growth outlook remains uncertain due to potential pricing pressures and increased competition from other domestic manufacturers [16].