防务支出提振，德股企业盈利增速要超美股了

Core Viewpoint - German companies are poised for a profit surge, with DAX index component profits expected to grow by 13%-15% in the second half of 2025 and 2026, surpassing the S&P 500's 13.5% growth rate for the first time in years [1] Group 1: Profit Growth Expectations - The average profit growth for German companies in 2026 is anticipated to exceed that of the U.S., as stated by Kevin Thozet from Carmignac [2] - The DAX index has surged by 21% this year, outperforming major global indices, while the Stoxx 600 has only risen by about 9% [2] Group 2: Key Growth Drivers - The primary driver of profit growth in Germany is expected to come from defense stocks, with significant contributions from Rheinmetall AG, Airbus, and MTU Aero Engines AG, projected to account for about 20% of DAX's earnings growth in the second half of 2025 [3] - Other critical sectors include energy transition, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence, supported by increased investments in data centers and electrification [3] Group 3: Government Initiatives - The German cabinet has approved a corporate tax relief plan worth approximately €460 billion ($530 billion), which includes a 30% tax deduction for new machinery purchases starting in July and a gradual reduction of the federal corporate tax rate from 15% to 10% by 2028 [3] - The new government under Chancellor Merz is accelerating defense and infrastructure spending, potentially contributing 1.6 percentage points to economic growth in 2026, equating to a 6% boost for DAX companies' earnings [3] Group 4: Resilience Against Tariffs - Analysts suggest that the impact of U.S. tariffs on German companies may be less severe than initially feared, with companies like SAP and Allianz less affected due to their service-oriented nature [4] - Apollo Global Management's president highlighted Germany as an excellent place for business, with a goal to grow its economy from $4 trillion to $6 trillion in the next 10 to 12 years [4] Group 5: Strategic Relevance - Germany is gaining strategic relevance as investors seek diversification from U.S. policy and fiscal risks, aided by growth-promoting reforms and industrial strength [5] - Barclays strategists noted that Germany's long-term domestic outlook is improving, with pro-growth policies and fiscal spending likely to drive investment [5]