【套利分析】COMEX铜对LME铜溢价再度攀高 强势状态能延续多久？

Core Viewpoint - The price difference between COMEX copper and LME copper has stabilized around $1,000 per ton, with COMEX copper showing stronger performance recently. The continuation of this premium status is under scrutiny [1][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Price Differences - The initial decline in the premium of COMEX copper over LME copper in early April was influenced by two main factors: the implementation of tariffs by the U.S. and concerns over global trade disruptions affecting economic growth and inflation [4]. - The strong performance of COMEX copper this year has been driven by expectations of potential increased tariffs on imported copper by the U.S., particularly following the initiation of a national security investigation into copper imports [4][5]. - Recent improvements in the global trade environment, including a warming U.S. trade stance and ongoing negotiations for tariff exemptions, have contributed to a rebound in both COMEX and LME copper prices [5]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - The premium of COMEX copper has led to a continuous increase in COMEX copper inventories, which have risen from 93,000 tons at the beginning of the year to approximately 187,000 tons, marking a 100% increase [6]. - Conversely, LME copper inventories have decreased significantly from over 270,000 tons to just above 130,000 tons, also reflecting a reduction of more than 100% [6]. - The recent tightening of the LME 0-3 spread indicates a strengthening in the market, with the spread turning into a premium structure by the end of April, reaching over $70 per ton [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The ongoing influx of copper into the U.S. is expected to continue until the U.S. government finalizes its tariff measures, maintaining the high price differential [8]. - The expiration of the tariff exemption period in early July and the uncertain outcomes of trade negotiations with various countries could pose risks to copper prices [8]. - The current low inventory levels in non-U.S. regions are primarily due to the cross-regional flow of copper rather than strong demand, suggesting that the market may need to adjust to real supply and demand dynamics after the current speculative phase [8].