我国港口吞吐量逆势增长，下半年外贸旺季或提前到来

Core Viewpoint - The port throughput data in China shows resilience despite fluctuations in US-China tariff policies, with significant growth in both cargo and container throughput in the first four months of the year [1][7][9]. Group 1: Port Performance - Major ports in China completed a total cargo throughput of 5.75 billion tons in the first four months, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, with foreign trade cargo throughput growing by 2% [1][7]. - Container throughput reached 11.225 million TEUs, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1][7]. - The top ten ports by cargo throughput include Ningbo-Zhoushan, Tangshan, and Shanghai, while the top ten for container throughput are led by Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Shenzhen [7][8]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - The imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US led to a rapid decline in cargo volume on US routes, prompting shipping companies to adjust their capacities [7][9]. - Despite the challenges, China's foreign trade maintained stable growth, with total trade value reaching 14.14 trillion yuan, a 2.4% increase year-on-year [7][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The container throughput at Ningbo-Zhoushan port increased by 9.9% to 13.568 million TEUs, driven by strong performance in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and South America [8][9]. - The demand for shipping to the US surged significantly in May, with average booking volumes increasing by 277% from early May [10][11]. - Shipping rates for North American routes have risen sharply, with the North America route index increasing by 69.7% and 89.2% for East and West routes, respectively [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current tight capacity situation is expected to persist during the 90-day transition period following tariff adjustments, with inventory accumulation likely to continue [12][15]. - The potential for a trade agreement between the US and China could alleviate some tariff impacts, but complete tariff removal is unlikely [12][15]. - The upcoming peak season for foreign trade may arrive earlier this year due to preemptive inventory accumulation by buyers [12][15].