马棕油3800支撑稳固！但4000阻力难破 6月是宽幅震荡还是趋势下跌？

Core Viewpoint - Malaysian palm oil futures reversed early losses and recorded a weekly gain, despite concerns over rising production and inventory levels [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - Malaysian palm oil futures for August closed at 3,917 MYR (926.88 USD), up 14 MYR or 0.36%, marking a weekly increase of 1.01% [1] - The market's initial decline was attributed to worries about rising production and inventory, but a strong performance in exports and following the trend of soybean oil prices supported the market [1][2] - The support level for Malaysian palm oil futures is seen at 3,800 MYR, with resistance at 4,000 MYR [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 3% to 1.74 million tons in May, while inventory is projected to rise by 7.74% to 2.01 million tons [1][2] - The increase in palm oil yield and extraction rate in Malaysia for May is reported at 1.9% and 0.3%, respectively, contributing to a 3.53% rise in production [2] Group 3: Export Data - Malaysian palm oil exports for May are reported to have increased significantly, with various sources indicating increases ranging from 13.21% to 29.6% compared to the previous month [2] - The export volume for May is estimated at approximately 1.23 million tons according to AmSpec, while SGS and ITS report figures of 1.07 million tons and 1.32 million tons, respectively [2] Group 4: Regional Insights - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased to 2.04 million tons in March, with exports rising to 2.88 million tons, up from 2.56 million tons year-on-year [3] - India's edible oil imports surged by 37% in May, with palm oil imports increasing by 87% to 600,000 tons, the highest level in six months [4] Group 5: Price Dynamics - Domestic palm oil port inventory rose to 363,000 tons, indicating a potential gradual recovery in stock levels [5] - The price spread between palm oil and soybean oil has narrowed, reflecting market dynamics influenced by supply and demand factors [6] Group 6: Market Outlook - Analysts maintain a neutral to slightly bearish outlook for palm oil prices, citing increased production and inventory pressures, while also noting potential support from lower import duties in India [7] - The expectation for June includes a wide fluctuation in palm oil prices, with a potential slight downward shift in price levels [7]