5月非农数据略超预期，美联储9月还会降息吗？

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. labor market showed stronger-than-expected job growth in May, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, surpassing the market expectation of 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the non-farm employment figures for March and April, with March's total adjusted from 185,000 to 120,000, a decrease of 65,000, and April's from 177,000 to 147,000, a decrease of 30,000, resulting in a total downward revision of 95,000 jobs for these two months [3] - The unemployment rate has remained within a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024, which may provide the Federal Reserve with the policy space to delay interest rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings in May increased by 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the previous value of 0.2% and the expected 0.3%, while year-over-year growth reached 3.9%, exceeding the previous 3.8% and the expected 3.7% [4] - The labor force participation rate decreased from 62.6% to 62.4% in the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in the labor market [4] - Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% this month, with a potential rate cut anticipated in September [4] Group 3 - The job market may face challenges due to the recent actions by President Trump, which have revoked temporary legal status for hundreds of thousands of immigrants, potentially leading to a decline in job growth [5] - Recent data from ADP indicated that the private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, the lowest in over two years, while initial jobless claims reached the highest level since October 2024 [5] - The number of continuing claims for unemployment benefits is hovering near the highest level in nearly four years, suggesting signs of a slowdown in the job market [5]