全球长债市场风暴不断，美日债务困境何解

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over excessive government spending have led to weak demand in long-term bond auctions across multiple countries, particularly in Japan and the U.S. [1][3][10] Group 1: Japan's Long-Term Bond Market - Japan's 30-year bond auction on June 5 saw a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.92, the lowest in 2023, compared to an average of 3.39 over the past year [1] - The Japanese government is increasing the supply of ultra-long bonds to fill pension gaps, leading to oversupply in the market [4] - Domestic institutions, such as life insurance companies, are reducing their holdings of long bonds due to pressure from IFRS 9 and duration mismatch [4] - The Bank of Japan's shift in monetary policy, including expectations of interest rate hikes and a reduction in bond purchases, is weakening market liquidity [5] - Japan's public debt exceeds twice its economic size, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [3][5] Group 2: Global Bond Market Implications - Weak demand for Japanese bonds may trigger a series of reactions, including a steeper yield curve and increased financing costs for long-term investments [6] - The upcoming U.S. 30-year bond auction on June 12 could further impact market confidence, especially if demand remains low [2][7] - The bid-to-cover ratio for U.S. bonds has also declined, indicating reduced interest from buyers [7][8] - High foreign exchange hedging costs are making U.S. bonds less attractive to non-U.S. investors, further complicating the demand landscape [7][8] Group 3: Recommendations and Future Outlook - Suggestions for addressing the long-term bond market challenges include restructuring debt portfolios towards mid-term maturities and introducing more sustainable investment options [11] - Strengthening fiscal anchors and optimizing market infrastructure are also recommended to stabilize the bond market [11] - The overall supply-demand imbalance in the bond market is expected to persist, with significant implications for global liquidity and interest rates [10][11]