首席来了｜星展银行邓志坚：中长期看黄金仍有上涨动力

Economic Outlook - The global economy is undergoing significant adjustments and transformations, with uncertainties affecting investment directions for the first half of 2025 [1] - The volatility in gold prices is expected to continue, with a potential for moderate long-term increases driven by central bank purchases [1][4] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Global tariff policies are experiencing notable fluctuations, impacting both global trade and financial markets, leading to increased investor caution and volatility [2] - The U.S. tariff increases have particularly affected Canada and Mexico, where exports to the U.S. constitute approximately 70% and 80% of their total exports, respectively [2] Market Stability - The Asian market, particularly China, shows greater stability and resilience compared to Western markets, with more negotiation space and policy tools available to manage trade relations with the U.S. [3] Gold as a Safe Haven - Gold has historically been viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly effective in hedging against U.S. dollar risks, with a 90% negative correlation observed over time [4] - Central banks globally are reducing their holdings of U.S. debt in favor of increasing gold reserves, reflecting a trend towards de-dollarization and financial risk management [5][8] Demand for Gold - Gold demand is categorized into four main types: industrial use, jewelry consumption, investment demand, and central bank purchases, each influencing gold prices differently [6] - Industrial demand for gold has seen a rare increase of 6% in 2023, driven by advancements in AI and high-tech industries [7] - Investment demand, particularly during periods of heightened market uncertainty, has been a significant driver of gold price increases [7] Currency and Investment Strategies - Investors in U.S. dollar-denominated assets face currency risk, which can be mitigated through gold as a hedging tool [9] - Adjusting hedging strategies based on expectations of the U.S. dollar's performance can optimize investment returns and manage risks effectively [9]