一年八次降息，欧洲央行降息周期或将结束｜全球央行观察

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered key interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the eighth rate cut since June of the previous year, with current rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40% for deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates respectively [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The ECB's recent rate cut aligns with market expectations and signals a potential pause in the current easing cycle, depending on future economic data [1][6] - ECB President Lagarde indicated that the current monetary policy cycle is entering a new phase, with future rate movements contingent on economic performance [1][5] - Following the announcement, market expectations for further rate cuts diminished, with the probability of a July cut dropping from 30% to around 20% [1][6] Group 2: Economic Conditions - Eurozone inflation has eased, with the May harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 1.9%, below the ECB's 2% target for the first time in eight months, aided by falling energy prices and a stronger euro [2][3] - Economic growth remains weak, with GDP growth of 0.4% in Q1 2025 driven mainly by temporary export effects from Germany and Spain, while service sector activity is contracting [3][6] - Geopolitical tensions and global trade disputes contribute to economic uncertainty, prompting the ECB to consider further rate cuts to mitigate external shocks [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ECB has revised its inflation forecasts, projecting an average inflation rate of 2.0% for 2025 and 1.6% for 2026, indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy [3][6] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may pause rate cuts in July, with the next meeting in September potentially being the last opportunity for a cut, depending on economic conditions and inflation trends [6][7] - The market anticipates a limited further rate cut of 25 basis points by the end of 2025, followed by a period of observation [6][7]