美国就业市场暗藏隐忧 专家警告增长动能或难持续

Group 1 - The U.S. job market remains stable, but there are emerging cracks that could pose significant challenges in the coming months [1] - In May, the U.S. added 139,000 jobs, slightly above market expectations but below April's 147,000 [1] - The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, with the underemployment rate remaining at 7.8% [1] Group 2 - Job growth is primarily driven by the healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance sectors, but these industries face potential growth limitations due to proposed policy changes [2] - The proposed spending bill includes a $700 billion cut to federal Medicaid spending and increased costs for ACA enrollment, which could severely impact the healthcare sector that has contributed about 30% of new jobs over the past three years [2] - The leisure and hospitality sector may also be affected by new tariff policies, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending and job impacts [2] Group 3 - Job seekers' confidence is declining, with about 40% of job seekers lacking confidence in the current job market, and nearly one-third expecting fewer job opportunities in the next six months [2] - There is a growing disparity in the job market, where those already employed are faring better than new job seekers, particularly recent graduates [3] - Knowledge-based job growth in sectors like finance, marketing, and software development is weak, while professional and business services are cutting positions [3] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicates a contraction in overall economic activity, with businesses and households becoming increasingly cautious in their decision-making [3] - Recruitment levels are stable, but low employee turnover suggests that companies remain cautious about adding new positions [3]