3 6 Ke·2025-06-07 01:46Core Insights - The aviation industry is facing significant profitability challenges, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, where airlines are projected to earn only $2.6 per passenger by 2025, far below the global average of $7.2 per passenger [1][10] - Despite the low profitability, global airline revenues are expected to reach a record high of $979 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin of only 3.7% [1][15] - The industry is heavily impacted by high operational costs, including fuel, labor, and maintenance, which limit profit margins to around 20-30% after covering essential expenses [4][5] Industry Overview - The Asia-Pacific region is the largest air passenger market globally but suffers from intense price competition, leading to lower profitability compared to other regions [1][10] - In China, half of the airlines are still operating at a loss, although the overall profitability improved in 2024, with a net profit of 4.47 billion yuan [3][11] - The average net profit margin for the aviation industry is projected to be 3.4% in 2024, slightly increasing to 3.7% in 2025 [4] Cost Structure - Fuel costs account for approximately 25% of total operating expenses for airlines, with significant impacts from fluctuations in oil prices [4][5] - Labor costs are expected to rise by 7.6% in 2025, reaching $253 billion, further squeezing profit margins [5] - Supply chain issues and an aging fleet are increasing maintenance costs, with a backlog of over 17,000 aircraft orders [5] Regional Performance - Middle Eastern airlines are the most profitable, with a projected net profit of $62 billion in 2025 and a profit per passenger of $27.2 [8] - North American airlines are expected to achieve a net profit of $127 billion in 2025, benefiting from high load factors [8] - In contrast, Latin American airlines are projected to see a decline in net profit, while African airlines maintain low profitability due to high operational costs [10] Future Outlook - The global aviation industry is expected to see a 1.3% increase in total revenue in 2025, driven by a 1.6% growth in passenger revenue [15] - A decrease in fuel prices by 13% is anticipated to significantly improve profitability for airlines in 2025 [17] - The recovery of international travel and increased passenger demand are expected to enhance the financial performance of airlines, particularly in China [17][19]