暴跌50%了，白酒能不能抄底？

Group 1 - The recent phone call between the two national leaders had a minimal impact on the capital market, with A50 futures only moving from -0.13% to 0.24%, a mere 0.37 percentage points [1] - The A-share market continues to experience narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a four-day cumulative increase of only 1.13%, struggling to surpass the 3400-point mark [3] - Silver has seen significant gains, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" rising by 4.68% today, totaling an 8.2% increase over recent days, while gold ETFs only increased by 1.52% [5] Group 2 - The supply shortage is a key factor driving the rise in silver prices, with the World Platinum Investment Council predicting a 30-ton shortage in the platinum market for 2025, and silver also facing supply issues [6] - The "gold-silver ratio" is undergoing a correction, currently at 92.7, indicating that silver may offer better value compared to gold at this time [7] - There are limited investment options for silver, with the "Guotou Silver LOF" underperforming its benchmark, and trading silver futures requiring significant capital, making it less accessible for small investors [9] Group 3 - The new consumption sector appears to be facing challenges, with stocks like "Mizuki Ice City" and "Old Peking Gold" experiencing significant declines [11] - The market capitalization of new consumption companies has reached levels that seem unreasonable, with "Bubble Mart" surpassing the combined market cap of major toy companies [13] - Traditional consumption sectors, such as liquor, are also struggling, with the liquor index showing a maximum drawdown of 57.76%, comparable to previous downturns [29] Group 4 - Public fund holdings in the liquor sector have decreased significantly, with the proportion dropping from 8.48% in Q4 2020 to 3.71% in Q1 2023, indicating a shift in investment sentiment [16][17] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the liquor index is 18.87, which is at a level similar to the end of 2018, but the sustainability of this valuation is questioned due to potential future earnings stagnation [23][31] - The liquor index has maintained a dividend yield of 4.2%, suggesting that even with a significant price drop, the yield could remain attractive, raising questions about the likelihood of such a decline [31]