光伏2025年中期策略：供给侧困境反转见曙光，看好产能再全球化、技术迭代

Supply Side - The photovoltaic industry is facing a significant oversupply issue, with nominal capacity exceeding 1000 GW in 2024, far surpassing the expected demand of 650-700 GW for 2025. However, supply-side clearing has begun due to joint efforts from policies and market forces [1][19][13] - Policy measures from various government departments since late 2024 aim to regulate capacity, resolve structural contradictions, and control prices, indicating a strong commitment to addressing supply-side issues in the photovoltaic sector [1][19][12] - Market dynamics are accelerating the exit of underperforming companies, with many second and third-tier firms facing continuous losses and high debt ratios, leading to increased mergers and acquisitions [1][19][17] Demand Side - Domestic demand is characterized by a "rush to install" and policy alignment, with new installations reaching 59.71 GW in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 31%, and April alone seeing 45.22 GW, up 215% year-on-year [2][3] - Despite potential declines in grid-connected data post-June, factors such as delayed component shipments and overseas orders are expected to support stable demand transitions [2][3] - The global market is projected to see a 5%-10% increase in new installations in 2025, with component demand reaching 650-700 GW, driven by declining costs and expanding markets in regions like the Middle East and Latin America [2][3] Global Capacity - The restructuring of the photovoltaic supply chain is accelerating due to trade barriers, with component packaging capacity moving overseas, particularly in the U.S., Turkey, and India [3][4] - Companies with overseas low-tariff production capabilities, such as those in Indonesia and Laos, are expected to benefit from pricing advantages [3][4] Technological Iteration - Three technology routes—TOPCon, HJT, and XBC—are developing in a differentiated manner, with cost reduction and efficiency enhancement as core focuses [4][5] - TOPCon technology is experiencing severe capacity homogenization, but leading companies are expected to break the profit dilemma through efficiency upgrades and cost reductions [4][5] - HJT technology is steadily expanding, with clear efficiency improvement paths and advantages in specific market scenarios due to fewer patent barriers [5][4] Investment Recommendations - Companies positioned to benefit from the global capacity trend include independent third-party battery suppliers and leading firms in differentiated technology routes [10][9] - The focus should be on companies with robust financials and quality reports, as well as those involved in the integration of silicon material segments [10][9]