第一个掉队的“新消费三宝”，会是蜜雪吗？

Group 1 - UBS downgraded the rating of Mixue Ice City from "Neutral" to "Sell" due to concerns over high valuation and significant setbacks in overseas business, leading to negative growth [1][6] - The target price for Mixue Ice City was raised to HKD 477.13, indicating an 11% downside from the current price of HKD 536 [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of 43x/36x for 2025/26 and a PEG ratio of 2.2x suggest that the market has fully priced in long-term growth expectations [3][4] Group 2 - Mixue Ice City's overseas business has faced severe setbacks, with negative net openings and a 35% decline in same-store sales growth in 2024, showing no signs of recovery [6][7] - The overseas revenue share is expected to decrease from 5.2% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, only recovering to 5.3% by 2028 [7] - UBS has lowered its profit forecasts for 2025-27 by 0.7-1.2% due to slower overseas expansion and weak same-store sales growth, although gross margin and operating margin are expected to remain stable [10] Group 3 - Despite valuation pressures, Mixue Ice City's domestic business continues to show strong growth, with approximately 6,000 new stores opened this year [11] - The company is expected to maintain a 15% annual store opening growth rate over the next 3-4 years, reaching a total of 70,000 stores by 2028 [11] - The growth strategy focuses on penetrating lower-tier cities and increasing store density in existing regions, benefiting from industry consolidation trends [11]