比特币或将作为美国治国工具在“全球经济秩序重构”中发挥重要作用

Core Viewpoint - Trump has high expectations for cryptocurrencies, aiming to establish the U.S. as the "global cryptocurrency capital" through strategic initiatives like the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve as a permanent national asset [3][15]. Group 1: Cryptocurrency Development and Trends - Bitcoin, since its inception in 2009, has maintained the highest market capitalization and is referred to as "digital gold," with projections suggesting it could account for 10% of global trade settlements by 2050 [5]. - The U.S. currently holds the largest amount of Bitcoin, approximately 207,000, and dominates global mining with over 35% of the market share [5]. Group 2: International Monetary System Challenges - The U.S.-centered international monetary system faces significant challenges, including reliance on U.S. consumption and China's fixed asset investments, leading to economic vulnerabilities [8]. - The "de-dollarization" trend has gained traction among emerging economies, particularly following the financial sanctions against Russia, which have raised concerns about the weaponization of the dollar [7][8]. Group 3: Recommendations for a New Monetary System - The report advocates for the establishment of a "Bretton Woods 3.0" system, integrating Bitcoin and stablecoins to diversify U.S. asset holdings and reinforce its position as a leader in financial innovation [9][10]. - Bitcoin and stablecoins are proposed as reserve assets due to their independence from central authorities and their ability to hedge against crises, as demonstrated during the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in March 2023 [10] . Group 4: Scenarios for Bitcoin's Market Value - Three scenarios are analyzed regarding Bitcoin's market value: 1. If Bitcoin reaches half the value of gold, its market cap would be $10 trillion, and U.S. reserves of 1 million Bitcoins would total $500 billion [12]. 2. If Bitcoin matches gold's current value, its market cap would be $20 trillion, with U.S. reserves valued at $1 trillion [13]. 3. If Bitcoin reaches half the global sovereign debt market value, its market cap would be $30 trillion, with U.S. reserves valued at $1.5 trillion [14]. Group 5: U.S. Policy Developments on Cryptocurrencies - Since Trump's second term, significant steps have been taken to advance cryptocurrency policies, including the establishment of a digital asset working group and the signing of executive orders to manage strategic Bitcoin reserves [15]. - The U.S. aims to reverse the declining status of the dollar in the global monetary system through the development of dollar-backed stablecoins and Bitcoin markets, which could transform global finance and geopolitical dynamics [15].