黄金市场的转折点：专家预测下半年走势

Core Insights - The global economic uncertainty has led to a renewed interest in gold, with global gold ETF holdings expected to increase by 17% in the first half of 2025, reaching the highest level in nearly five years [1] - Analysts believe that despite short-term price fluctuations due to Federal Reserve policy adjustments, gold is still in a bull market cycle, with prices projected to exceed $2,000 per ounce by the end of 2025 [3] - Gold is seen as an effective hedge against inflation, especially as the U.S. CPI year-on-year growth rate reached 3.8% in the first quarter of 2025, higher than expected [5] Institutional Investor Behavior - Central banks have purchased nearly 300 tons of gold in the first five months of 2025, representing a growth of over 20% compared to the same period last year, indicating strong confidence in gold as a reserve asset [6] - High-net-worth individuals and family offices are increasing their investments in physical gold to diversify risks and protect asset values from currency depreciation [6] Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The geopolitical risks, particularly the tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Ukraine conflict, have heightened market risk aversion, typically resulting in a 5% increase in gold prices during such events [5] - Gold's unique appeal is highlighted as a stable source of returns for investors navigating the current complex market environment [3]