美债最大“接盘侠”诞生，有望买走1.5万亿，但不是中国、日本

Group 1: U.S. Debt and Inflation Dynamics - The U.S. is accelerating its inflation through excessive dollar issuance, which also contributes to global inflation, while its allies are lowering interest rates to combat inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to follow suit [1] - As traditional buyers like China, Japan, and the UK continue to reduce their holdings, it is projected that by 2025, they will have collectively reduced their U.S. Treasury holdings by $1.5 trillion [3] - China has reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings to $765.4 billion in 2024, down from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013, representing a cumulative sell-off of over $500 billion, or a 41.5% reduction [5] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Japan, the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, has also been quietly reducing its holdings, with a reduction of $224.5 billion in 2022 and an additional $285 million in September 2023, followed by a further $106 million in June 2024 [5] - In October 2024, the combined reduction of U.S. Treasuries by Japan, China, and the UK amounted to $50.9 billion, contributing to a total decrease of $77.2 billion in foreign-held U.S. Treasuries [7] Group 3: Domestic Investment Surge - Despite foreign sell-offs, U.S. domestic investors have significantly increased their holdings, with ordinary American households adding over $2 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, and financial institutions and various funds increasing their holdings by $3 trillion [11] - Major asset management firms like BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fidelity have formed a "U.S. Treasury support alliance," collectively holding $1.5 trillion in U.S. Treasuries [11] Group 4: Financial Cycle and Risks - The current financial cycle in the U.S. resembles a closed loop where the government issues new debt, which is then repackaged by Wall Street and sold to domestic investors, driven by attractive yields exceeding 5% [13] - The interest expenditure on U.S. debt is projected to reach nearly $900 billion in 2024, with a fiscal deficit of $1.9 trillion, indicating that interest payments will consume nearly a quarter of fiscal revenue [17] Group 5: Future Projections and Innovations - The introduction of stablecoins, which are expected to inject at least $1.6 trillion in liquidity into U.S. Treasuries by 2030, is seen as a potential stabilizing factor amid declining foreign interest [21]