中国炼化行业重构：炼化一体化、新能源冲击与2030战略棋局报告

Core Insights - The report highlights the restructuring of China's refining industry driven by capacity expansion and energy transition, showcasing trends towards scale, integration, and greening [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Status and Background - China's refining capacity is projected to exceed 980 million tons per year by 2025, with significant new refining projects set to launch in the next five years [7]. - The industry is undergoing a structural upgrade driven by energy transition and chemical industry enhancement, focusing on large-scale integrated refining projects [7]. Group 2: Key Project Layout and Capacity Upgrades - Major projects scheduled for 2024-2025 include: - Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's phase one, featuring two 10 million tons per year vacuum distillation units and 1.5 million tons per year of ethylene [9]. - CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical's 6 million tons per year vacuum distillation unit, enhancing production of chemical raw materials [10]. - Planned projects for 2026-2030 include: - Huajin Aramco Petrochemical's 15 million tons per year vacuum distillation unit, expected to be operational by 2026 [11]. - Fujian Gulei Refining Phase II, with a capacity of 16 million tons per year, focusing on photovoltaic new materials [11]. Group 3: Market Structure Changes and Industry Impact - The Yangtze River Delta and Northeast regions are enhancing regional supply capabilities through capacity integration, with leading companies capturing high-end markets [15][16]. - Smaller refineries face cost pressures and competition from new energy sources, with an estimated 30% expected to undergo restructuring or transformation by 2025 [17]. Group 4: Product Structure Upgrade - The yield of refined oil is expected to decline from 62% in 2023 to below 50% by 2030, while the share of high-end fuels is projected to rise to 20% [21]. - The self-sufficiency rate of high-end polyolefins is anticipated to increase from 35% to 60% by 2030, reflecting a shift towards high-end chemical products [22]. Group 5: Future Demand Changes Post-Integration - The overall demand for crude oil may stabilize or increase due to integrated refining modifications, as seen in Guangxi Petrochemical's shift towards self-sufficiency [26]. - The rapid growth of electric vehicles is expected to slow down the demand for refined oil, with some regions already experiencing declines [28].