Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are in a dilemma after the strongest May performance in over 30 years for the US stock market, facing a critical decision that could determine their annual performance: whether to chase the rally or wait for a pullback [1][2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index is currently 2.3% away from its historical high, facing short-term resistance around 6000 points, with a notable calm period where the index's daily fluctuations did not exceed 0.6% for seven consecutive trading days [2][4] - In May, the Nasdaq rose by 9% and the S&P 500 increased by 6%, marking the best May performance in over 30 years [4] Economic Indicators - Despite a lack of fear factors in the market, economic data appears weak, and the probability of recession has not surged, with US companies continuing to report solid earnings [2][3] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core readings, raising the year-over-year figure to 2.9%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target [4][5] Investor Sentiment - There is a prevailing sense of complacency among investors, with concerns about potential risks being overshadowed by a belief that trade and tariff risks are under control [6][7] - The market is experiencing a divergence in trading volume, with the lowest trading volume of the year occurring recently, indicating underlying market disagreements [10] Political and Trade Risks - Political risks are resurfacing, particularly with the breakdown of relations between Trump and Musk, which led to a sell-off in the S&P 500 and an 18% drop in Tesla's stock [8] - The introduction of the 899th clause, which could impose retaliatory taxes on countries deemed to have "unfair foreign tax practices," is raising concerns among investors regarding its potential impact on various sectors [8] Global Market Comparison - The S&P 500 has underperformed the MSCI global index (excluding the US) by nearly 12 percentage points in 2025, marking the worst relative performance since 1993 [6] - The gap in absolute returns between the S&P 500 and the German DAX index is about 20%, which widens to approximately 30% when adjusted for currency fluctuations [8]
美股要冲击新高,投资者却“进退两难”:能追吗?还是等回调?