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华源证券:首次覆盖招商港口给予买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the investment potential of China Merchants Port (001872), emphasizing its global port investment platform and ongoing overseas expansion to enhance profitability [1] Group 1: Company Overview - China Merchants Port is controlled by China Merchants Group, a century-old state-owned enterprise, which has expanded its port asset management through acquisitions and shareholding [1] - The company's core business includes port loading and unloading, bonded logistics, and smart technology, with port loading and unloading expected to account for over 95% of revenue by 2024 [1] - Investment income has averaged 67.23% of total profit from 2019 to 2024, with significant contributions from investments in Shanghai International Port Group (600018) [1] Group 2: Global Network and Revenue Contribution - As of the end of 2024, the company has established an investment network in 51 ports across 26 countries and regions, with domestic port assets concentrated in five major coastal port clusters [2] - Domestic port business has contributed an average of 71.84% to total revenue from 2019 to 2024, providing a solid performance foundation [2] - The overseas business, while smaller, has shown significant growth potential with a CAGR of 11.12% from 2019 to 2024, surpassing the overall company growth rate of 5.88% [2] - The company is expected to complete the acquisition of the Vast Oil Terminal in Brazil by 2025, further expanding its South American operations [2] Group 3: Service Management and Fee Structure - The company focuses on improving service management and market research to stabilize and reasonably increase port fees [2] - Domestic port fee reforms are ongoing, with expectations for accelerated marketization and enhanced fee flexibility [2] - In overseas markets, fee adjustments may occur in response to local inflation pressures [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.813 billion, 5.175 billion, and 5.604 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.57%, 7.53%, and 8.27% [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 10.64, 9.90, and 9.14 for the respective years [3] - Given the substantial growth potential and a dividend yield of approximately 4%, the company has been rated as a "buy" [3]