证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 21 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 快递 6 月数据明显分化，关注行业反内卷进程 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 7 月 14 日-2025 年 7 月 20 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）各家快递公司发布 6 月经营业绩，顺丰业务量增速维持 30%+，"通达系"中圆 通增速保持领先。2025 年 6 月圆通/韵达/申通/顺丰完成业务量 26.27 / 21.73 /21 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 23.44 CNY, based on a target PE of 12.5 times [7][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve high growth in revenue and profit driven by investments and acquisitions, with a projected CAGR of 9% for revenue and 27% for net profit from 2018 to 2024 [1][15]. - The domestic container business is anticipated to grow steadily, with significant contributions from the Shenxi Port area, which is expected to see an 18% increase in container throughput in 2024 [2][37]. - The overseas business is projected to benefit from emerging market growth, with a CAGR of 10% for revenue and 12% for profit from 2018 to 2024 [3][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading global port operator, focusing on port investment, operation, logistics, and smart technology [15]. - It has a strong historical background as a state-owned enterprise and has established a significant global presence through strategic investments and acquisitions [16][30]. 2. Domestic Business Growth - The domestic container throughput is expected to grow significantly, with the Shenxi Port area projected to account for 81% of the total throughput of mainland-controlled terminals in 2024 [2][30]. - The company’s net profit from domestic operations is primarily driven by investments in key ports in the Yangtze River Delta region [34][40]. 3. Overseas Business Expansion - The overseas revenue and profit are expected to grow due to emerging market opportunities, particularly in Sri Lanka and Brazil, with a focus on enhancing port capabilities [3][47]. - The company has been actively expanding its control over key ports in emerging markets, aligning with the "Belt and Road" initiative [57][64]. 4. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit is projected to reach 46.9 billion CNY in 2025, with a steady increase expected in subsequent years [4][5]. - The report highlights a strong financial outlook, with a consistent increase in EBITDA and net profit margins [5][21].

证券代码：001872/201872 证券简称：招商港口/招港 B 公告编号：2025-045 招商局港口集团股份有限公司 关于 2025 年 6 月业务量数据的自愿性信息披露公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 | 业务指标 | 2025 年 6 月 | 同比变化 | 本年累计 | 同比变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 集装箱总计（万 TEU） | 1,751.9 | 2.4% | 10,129.0 | 5.7% | | 内地码头 | 1,380.4 | 2.6% | 7,915.6 | 6.1% | | 其中：珠三角 | 148.4 | -1.8% | 896.7 | 9.2% | | 长三角 | 919.0 | 5.0% | 5,246.3 | 7.8% | | 环渤海 | 283.2 | -1.2% | 1,609.8 | -0.1% | | 东南地区 | 19.3 | -1.7% | 105.2 | 7.7% | | 西南地区 | 10.5 | -14.0% | 57.6 | -7.8% | | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details a significant equity change involving the increase of shareholding by China Ocean Shipping Company (COSCO) in Antong Holdings Co., Ltd. through various agreements and transactions, positioning COSCO as the largest shareholder of the company after the completion of these transactions [1][3][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Basic Information of the Equity Change - On July 11, 2025, COSCO acquired 33,333,334 shares (0.79% of total shares) of Antong Holdings through block trading [1][3]. - COSCO signed a share transfer agreement with China National Chemical Corporation Asset Management Co., Ltd. (ChemChina Asset Management) to acquire 82,908,988 shares (1.96% of total shares) [1][3]. - COSCO also entered into agreements with China Merchants Port Group Co., Ltd. and Guoxin Securities Co., Ltd. to acquire additional shares, totaling 39,000,000 shares (0.92%) and 178,500,000 shares (4.22%) respectively [1][3][13]. 2. Shareholding Structure Before and After the Change - Before the equity change, COSCO held no shares, while China Merchants Port held 288,817,293 shares (6.83%) [2][5]. - After the equity change, COSCO will hold 333,742,322 shares (7.89%), and China Merchants Port will hold 249,817,293 shares (5.90%) [2][5]. - The total shares held by COSCO and its concerted actors will amount to 583,852,868 shares (13.80%), making them the largest shareholder [2][4]. 3. Regulatory and Compliance Considerations - The equity change does not trigger a mandatory tender offer, and the actual control of Antong Holdings will not change immediately [3][14]. - The share transfer agreements require approval from relevant state-owned asset supervision authorities, and there is uncertainty regarding the approval [3][14]. - The completion of the share transfer is also subject to compliance confirmation from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the necessary registration procedures [3][14]. 4. Future Plans and Implications - COSCO has indicated potential future plans for further increases in shareholding, which may lead to changes in the board and management of Antong Holdings [3][14]. - The current largest shareholder remains Fujian Zhaohang Logistics Management Partnership (Limited Partnership), and the company currently has no actual controller [14].

证券代码：001872/201872 证券简称：招商港口/招港 B 公告编号：2025-044 招商局港口集团股份有限公司 关于回购公司股份的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记 载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 招商局港口集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2024 年 10 月 18 日、2024 年 10 月 29 日召开第十一届董事会 2024 年度第七次临时会议及 2024 年 度第三次临时股东大会，审议通过了《关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司股份 方案的议案》，同意公司以自有资金或自筹资金通过深圳证券交易所以集中竞 价交易方式回购公司股份，回购的股份全部用于注销并减少注册资本，回购价 格不超过 31.50 元/股。回购的资金总额不低于人民币 19,500 万元（含）且不超 过人民币 38,900 万元（含），回购实施期限为自公司股东大会审议通过本次回 购股份方案之日起 12 个月内。具体内容详见公司于 2024 年 10 月 20 日在巨潮资 讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《第十一届董事会 2024 年度第七次临时会议 决议公告》（公告编号：2 ...

（2024年度） 发行人 招商局港口集团股份有限公司 （深圳市南山区招商街道工业三路一号招商局港口大厦 23-25 楼） 债券简称：22 招港 01 债券代码：148052.SZ 债券简称：24 招港 K1 债券代码：148877.SZ 股票简称：招商港口/招港 B 股票代码：001872.SZ/201872.SZ 001872.SZ/201872.SZ 001872.SZ/201872.SZ 招商局港口集团股份有限公司 公司债券受托管理事务报告 债券受托管理人 （广东省深圳市福田区中心三路 8 号卓越时代广场（二期）北座） 2025 年 6 月 001872.SZ/201872.SZ 001872.SZ/201872.SZ 重要声明 中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"）编制本报告的内容及信息均 来源于招商局港口集团股份有限公司（以下简称"招商港口"、"发行人"或"公司"） 对外披露的《招商局港口集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度报告》等相关公开信息披 露文件、发行人提供的证明文件以及第三方中介机构出具的专业意见。本报告中的 "报告期"是指 2024 年 1 月 1 日至 2024 年 12 月 31 ...

Logistics Industry - The logistics sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 6.2% as of June 13, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 8.0% [1] - The shift from external to internal demand is contributing to excess returns in the logistics industry, with direct-operated express companies like SF Express and JD Logistics performing better than franchise-based counterparts [1] - The competitive intensity in the logistics sector is expected to be controllable due to effective regulatory constraints, despite a stronger demand for market share among leading companies [1] Shipping Industry - The shipping sector has experienced a year-to-date increase of 0.8%, with an excess return of 2.6% compared to the CSI 300 as of June 13, 2025 [2] - The easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to maintain strong export levels until mid-July, coupled with temporary capacity tightness, which may lead to further price increases in the shipping sector [2] - In the medium term, the supply of oil tankers, particularly VLCCs, remains tight, and a recovery in demand may lead to rising freight rates [2] Infrastructure Sector - As of June 13, 2025, the highway, railway, and port sectors have underperformed the market by 0.74, 4.23, and 0.73 percentage points, respectively [3] - The growth in passenger traffic on highways is driven by an increase in vehicle ownership and sustained short-distance travel demand, with the summer peak season expected to boost high-speed rail travel [3] - The recovery in domestic demand is anticipated to positively impact the freight transport sector, with the easing of U.S. tariff policies likely to sustain high levels of export trade in the short term [3]

Core Points - The company announced a cash dividend distribution plan for the fiscal year 2024, with a total cash dividend amounting to 1,839,836,697.18 yuan, based on a distribution ratio of 0.74 yuan per share [1][3][4] - The total share capital of the company is adjusted to 2,501,508,381 shares after accounting for share buybacks and stock option exercises [1][3] - The cash dividend per share for A shares is calculated to be 0.7351415 yuan after the distribution [2][4] Dividend Distribution Plan - The profit distribution plan was approved at the shareholders' meeting on May 23, 2025, and includes a capital reserve transfer to increase share capital [2][3] - The cash dividend distribution will be executed on June 24, 2025, with the ex-dividend date set for June 25, 2025 [5][6] - The distribution will be made to all A and B shareholders registered by the respective cut-off dates [6][7] Shareholder Taxation and Payment Method - A shares will have a differentiated tax rate for dividends, with 7.40 yuan per 10 shares for certain shareholders, while B shares will be converted to Hong Kong dollars based on the exchange rate on May 26, 2025 [5][8] - The cash dividends for A shares will be distributed through the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation, while B shares will be paid directly to shareholders' accounts [6][7] Adjustments and Future Considerations - The company will adjust the exercise price of stock options in accordance with the dividend distribution, with new prices calculated based on the dividend amount [7][8] - The company will also adjust the maximum repurchase price for shares following the dividend distribution [8]

Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see strong demand during the summer peak season, with a recommendation to focus on pre-peak investment opportunities. The industry has gradually emerged from the low-demand season since March, with rational pricing strategies from airlines supporting demand [3][12]. - In 2024, the total revenue of six listed airlines is projected to reach 521.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a tax pre-profit of 3 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 9 billion yuan in 2023. Different airlines show varying degrees of profit improvement [10][12]. - The report highlights that the international oil price decline will significantly enhance airline profits. A 5% drop in Brent crude oil prices could increase the pre-tax profits of major airlines by 29 billion yuan for Air China and 23 billion yuan for Eastern Airlines [14][15]. Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is anticipated to maintain strong growth resilience, with business volumes expected to increase by 21.5% in 2024 and 21.6% in Q1 2025. The total business volume for 2024 is projected to reach 1.758 billion pieces [32][35]. - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is on the rise, with the CR8 index expected to reach 85.2% in 2024 and 86.9% in Q1 2025, indicating a more consolidated market [32][35]. - Revenue for the express delivery industry is forecasted to grow by 13.8% in 2024, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan, with a slight pressure on average ticket prices, which are expected to decline by 14.2% [35][36]. Group 3: Dividend and Asset Value - The report emphasizes the value of dividend assets in the transportation sector, with cash dividend ratios for highways, railways, and ports projected at 51%, 47%, and 36% respectively for 2024, indicating strong cash flow stability [44][45]. - The TTM dividend yields for these sectors are expected to be 3.0% for highways, 3.3% for railways, and 2.3% for ports, reflecting a stable increase compared to previous years [44][45]. Group 4: Shipping Sector - The shipping sector faces short-term pressure due to US-China tariff disputes, but structural opportunities may arise. The report suggests that the tariff situation could lead to a shift in import demands, particularly for agricultural products, which may benefit dry bulk shipping [48][56]. - Historical data indicates that previous trade disputes have led to increased shipping rates for certain routes, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the current context [48][56].